For Immediate Release July 23, 2020 Krista Jenkins Director, FDU Poll 973.443.8390 kjenkins@fdu.edu @pollsandpols

Distrust for Policymakers Drives Opposition to Toll Hike

Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, New Jersey, July 23, 2020 – New Jerseyans are opposed to the recent increases on the state’s three major toll highways, and distrust of policymakers is at the heart of opposition for many. With the rate hikes going into effect in the fall, most of those opposed say they simply don’t believe their money will ultimately be used to improve the condition of New Jersey highways. This and other findings about attitudes toward the state’s transportation infrastructure are based on a recent statewide survey of adults in New Jersey conducted by the Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll, in conjunction with the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 825.

Almost half (49%) say they are opposed to the recent increases. Thirty-eight percent favor the toll hikes. With the exception of partisan differences, opinions are largely the same across a host of demographic groups. Republicans are solidly opposed to kicking in more when they drive Jersey highways (63%), while half of Democrats say they’re content with the rate hike (50%).

Among those who say no to the added expense, the dominant reason for their opposition is distrust, as they do not believe policymakers will do the right thing with the added revenue. Fifty percent say they doubt that the money will be funneled into road repairs, even though that was the justification given for the toll increases. Another quarter (24%) are already too strapped financially to afford the rate hike. Fewer (16%) believe the state has enough money for highway maintenance without tapping motorists, and eight percent think the highways are just fine.

“The hikes are a done deal and will take effect after September 13^th, so what the public wants is moot. However, it is important to note that many who are opposed base their opposition on the distrust that the toll hike revenues will actually be spent on road improvements.” said Krista Jenkins, director of the FDU Poll and professor of politics and government. “What this means is the state’s use of the money for road improvements needs to be paired with better communication. In other words, messaging must be far more than a sign saying ‘Your Tax Dollars at Work.”

The same survey finds a slight uptick in the perceived condition and safety of New Jersey’s roads, bridges, and tunnels. Although the numbers remain well below what would be considered a passing grade, 23 percent of New Jerseyans say the quality of the state’s transportation infrastructure is getting better, with a similar number (22%) saying the same about the safety of roads, bridges and tunnels. These numbers are up slightly from last year when about one in seven regarded improved quality (16%) and safety (15%). Most continue to believe both the quality (49%) and safety (50%) of roads, bridges, and tunnels have remained the same.

“Obviously, the intervening event between last year and today is the pandemic, which has kept so many off the roads. Whether the numbers continue to improve once things return to normal is an open question,” said Jenkins.

“Toll increases are never popular and state leaders should be commended for making the hard choice in difficult times.  But there is a road forward for motorists to support the increases if they can see their investment being put to good use,” said Greg Lalevee, Business Manager, IUOE 825. “That means two things – the state must follow through on its promise to dedicate the revenue to road improvements and they must let New Jerseyans know how the funds are being spent.”

Similar to last year’s survey results, clear majorities are not happy with state government when it comes to maintenance and using designated funds wisely. Half say the state is not doing enough to maintain and repair New Jersey’s roads, bridges, and tunnels – down from 63 percent ion 2019, and three-fourths believe policymakers need to do a better job allocating money for repairing and maintaining roads, bridges, and tunnels.

“These perspectives unite even partisans, something we don’t find all that often in today’s polarized landscape,” said Jenkins. “The improved perception of the state’s maintenance efforts, coupled with the slight improvement in attitudes toward safety and quality, could be a case of absence making the heart grow fonder in the COVID era. Time will tell, as two observations does not quite make a trend.”        

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About Fairleigh Dickinson University

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About FDU Poll

The FDU Poll is a university based survey research center that began in 2001. It has conducted over a hundred publicly released polls guided by a mission to provide high quality, scientifically sound, non-partisan measures of important issues facing New Jersey and the nation. To learn more visit us online

Methodology

The survey was conducted by The Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll. A random sample of 805 adults was drawn across all counties in New Jersey, and live interviews were conducted on landlines and cell phones between June 18 through June 29, 2020.   Persons without a telephone could not be included in the random selection process. Respondents within a household are selected by asking randomly for the youngest adult currently available. The interview was conducted in English and included 242 adults reached on a landline phone and 563 adults reached on a cell phone, all acquired through random digit dialing.

The data were weighted to be representative of the non-institutionalized adult population in the United States. The weighting balanced sample demographics to target population parameters. The sample is balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education, race/ethnicity, region and phone use. The sex, age, education, race/ethnicity and region parameters were derived from 2017 American Community Survey PUMS data. The phone use parameter was derived from estimates provided by the National Health Interview Survey Early Release Program.[1][2][3]

Weighting was done in two stages. The first stage of weighting corrected for different probabilities of selection associated with the number of adults in each household and each respondent’s telephone usage patterns. This adjustment also accounts for the overlapping landline and cell sample frames and the relative sizes of each frame and each sample. This first stage weight was applied to the entire sample which included all adults.

The second stage of the weighting balanced sample demographics to match target population benchmarks. This weighting was accomplished using SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis ensures that the demographic characteristics of the sample closely approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population..

Effects of Sample Design on Statistical Analysis

Post-data collection statistical adjustments require analysis procedures that reflect departures from simple random sampling. We calculate the effects of these design features so that an appropriate adjustment can be incorporated into tests of statistical significance when using these data. The so-called "design effect" or deff represents the loss in statistical efficiency that results from a disproportionate sample design and systematic non-response. The total sample design effect for this study is 1.45.[4]

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 805 adults is +/-4.1 percentage points (including the design effect) at a 95 percent confidence interval. Thus, if 50 percent of adults nationwide in this sample favor a particular position, we would be 95 percent sure that the true figure is between 45.9 and 54.1 percent (50 +/- 4.1) if all New Jersey adults had been interviewed, rather than just a sample.

Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, or context effects.

This telephone survey was fielded by Braun Research, Inc. with sample from SSI. Funding was provided by Fairleigh Dickinson University, with support from the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 825.

           

Weighted Telephone Sample Characteristics

805 New Jersey Adults

Male                                                    48% (411)                               

Female                                                 52% (394)                               

18-34                                                   27% (243)                                                       

35-54                                                   34% (273)                   

55+                                                      40% (288)                   

Democrat (with leaners)                         50% (398)       

Independent                                         24% (195)

Republican (with leaners)                     26% (200)

White                                                   57% (431)

Black                                                   12% (100)

Hispanic                                             19% (141)

Other                                                   12% (119)

HS or less                                             26% (136)                                           

Some college                                        35% (236)

College                                                 39% (430)

                       

Question wording and order:

 

DIV1 through DIV13 withheld

QD4 and QD5 withheld

R1 through R9 withheld

 

OE1     As you may have heard, Governor Murphy recently approved increases on the state’s three major toll highways in order to fund road construction projects. Would you say you favor or oppose [rotate] these increases?

1          Favor

2          Oppose            Ask OE2

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

 

OE2     Which of the following reasons, if any, best describes why you oppose toll increases?

1          I don’t believe the money will be used to improve the highways

2          The highways are fine the way they are

3          I can’t afford to pay anymore

4          The state does not need the money

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

 

NJ4      Would you say the QUALITY of New Jersey’s roads, bridges, and tunnels is getting better, getting worse, or

staying about the same [rotate]?

1          Getting better

2          Getting worse

3          Staying the same

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

 

NJ4      Would you say the SAFETY of New Jersey’s roads, bridges, and tunnels is getting better, getting worse, or

staying about the same [rotate]?

1          Getting better

2          Getting worse

3          Staying the same

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

 

NJ6      In your opinion, is the state doing or not doing enough [rotate] to maintain and repair New

Jersey’s roads, bridges, and tunnels?

1          Doing enough

2          Not doing enough

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

 

NJ7      Does the government need to do a better job allocating money it has for repairing and maintaining roads, bridges

and tunnels OR does the government need to collect more money from taxpayers to repair and maintain New Jersey’s

roads, bridges, and tunnels [rotate options]?

1          Do better with what it has

2          Needs more money

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)