For immediate release: Wednesday, October 11, 2016 8 pp.
Contact: Dan Cassino; dcassino@fdu.edu 973.896.7072
Fairleigh Dickinson University, October 11, 2016 –Almost 90 percent of Donald Trump’s and Hillary Clinton’s supporters believe in conspiracies that smear the candidate they don’t like, even in the absence of credible evidence, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind national poll. Conspiracy beliefs unrelated to the election—such as birtherism, trutherism, and even the belief that global warming is a hoax perpetrated by scientists continue unabated.
A majority of Trump’s supporters believe that President Barack Obama is “definitely” or “possibly” hiding important information about his background and early life. Among Trump supporters, 24 percent say that Obama is “definitely” doing so, and 43 percent say it’s “possibly true.” In contrast, only 14 percent of Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton’s supporters fit into either category. In sum, skepticism about Obama’s background among Republicans has decreased, but not significantly. In May of this year, 31 percent of Republicans said Obama was definitely hiding this information, and 39 percent said it was possible. Five months later, 21 percent of Republicans say that it’s “definitely” true, and 43 percent say that it’s possible.
“Trump’s statement that he now believes Obama was born in the U.S. doesn’t seem to have made much of an impact on Trump supporters,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University and an analyst for the PublicMind poll.
Americans are very willing to believe negative statements about candidates they oppose. Fully 86 percent of Clinton supporters say it’s at least possible that Trump is refusing to release his tax returns because they would show close financial ties to Russia. That may seem high, but 46 percent of Trump supporters think that’s at least possibly true as well.
“The fact that Trump hasn’t released his tax returns means there’s no way to know what’s in them,” said Cassino. “In this case, Democrats are just as open to evidence-free speculation as Republicans are on other issues.”
On the other side, 90 percent of Trump supporters say that Clinton “definitely” or “possibly” knew the attacks on U.S. personnel in Benghazi were going to happen, and did nothing to prevent them. Only 35 percent of Clinton supporters say the same. In May, the figure was 48 percent among Clinton supporters, and 85 percent among Trump supporters.
“Partisanship is a powerful driver of beliefs,” said Cassino. “There have been no serious allegations that Clinton knew the diplomatic compound in Benghazi was going to be attacked, but people are willing to believe it anyway.”
Conspiracy beliefs not directly related to the other candidate also are driven by partisanship. A majority of Trump’s supporters (60 percent) say global warming is a myth concocted by scientists. In contrast, 40 percent of Americans believe it’s “definitely” or “possibly” true, and only 28 percent among Clinton’s supporters express that view.
“In the past ten years, global climate change has become a partisan issue,” said Cassino. “Once beliefs about an issue become tied to a person’s political identity, they’re very resistant to change.”
Forty percent of Americans think that it’s “definitely” or “possibly” true that President Bush knew about the 9/11 terrorist attacks before they happened. African-Americans were much more likely to believe that Bush allowed the attacks to go forward: 27 percent say that he definitely knew about them beforehand, and another 34 percent think it’s possible. In contrast, only 8 percent of white respondents think he definitely knew about the attacks in advance.
Not all conspiracy beliefs are driven by partisanship. A majority of Americans from both parties say it’s at least possible the US government creates overseas conflicts to benefit the military-industrial complex. Overall, 18 percent of Americans say that this is “definitely” true, with the plurality (43 percent) saying that it’s “possibly” true. On this question, Trump and Clinton supporters, as well as Democrats and Republicans, all endorse the belief at about the same rates.
Similarly, 24 percent of Americans think it’s at least possible that the 2012 school murders in Sandy Hook, CT were faked in order to increase support for gun control. Interestingly, while Clinton and Trump supporters are about equally likely to believe this, supporters of third party candidates are much more likely to do so, with 33 percent saying that it’s “definitely” or “possibly” true.
“Believing that Sandy Hook was faked is the most outrageous of all the conspiracies we asked about,” said Cassino. “Yet, roughly a fifth of Americans think it’s at least possible.”
African-Americans are much more likely to endorse conspiracy theories than white Americans. For instance, while only 11 percent of Americans think that the US government is intentionally allowing drugs to flourish in the inner cities in order to justify the imprisonment of minority groups, 32 percent of African-Americans think it’s definitely true. The same holds true on several of the other issues: 65 percent of African-Americans believe that it’s at least possible that foreign wars are driven by the military-industrial complex (compared to 56 percent of whites).
“There have been confirmed instances in which the federal government was targeting African Americans, most famously the Tuskegee syphilis study when African-American men with syphilis were neither treated or informed they had the disease,” said Cassino. “So, it’s no surprise that African Americans may be more likely to believe that the government is lying to them.”
Sixty-four percent of Americans say it’s at least possible the two major political parties rig the primary election process to make it harder for outside candidates to get the presidential nomination. Fifty-six percent of Clinton supports say that the primary system is “possibly” or “definitely” rigged, compared with 70 percent of Trump supporters.
Methodology, questions, and tables on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.edu
Radio actualities at 201.692.2846 For more information, please call 201.692.7032
Methodology - The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone September 28 –October 2, 2016 among a random national sample of 1019 Americans. Results have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.1 percent, including the design effect. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup.
Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.
Interviews were conducted by SSRS of Media, Pennsylvania, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline or cellular phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.
The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, sex, race, and education. 310 interviews were conducted on landlines and 709 were conducted on cellular telephones.
The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.
Tables
|
President Bush knew about the 9/11 attacks before they happened. |
||||||||||
|
|
Total |
Race |
Candidate Choice |
Party ID |
||||||
|
White |
Black |
Hispanic |
Trump |
Clinton |
Other |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
||
|
Definitely true |
13% |
8% |
27% |
22% |
8% |
12% |
18% |
9% |
14% |
21% |
|
Possibly true |
28% |
24% |
34% |
37% |
20% |
28% |
34% |
21% |
32% |
21% |
|
Definitely not true |
54% |
63% |
30% |
36% |
67% |
54% |
43% |
67% |
49% |
45% |
|
Don't Know |
5% |
4% |
9% |
5% |
4% |
5% |
4% |
3% |
5% |
12% |
|
Refused |
1% |
1% |
|
|
0% |
0% |
2% |
0% |
1% |
|
|
The US government keeps getting us into conflicts abroad in order to further the interests of the military industrial complex |
||||||||||
|
|
Total |
Race |
Candidate Choice |
Party ID |
||||||
|
White |
Black |
Hispanic |
Trump |
Clinton |
Other |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
||
|
Definitely true |
18% |
15% |
19% |
23% |
13% |
16% |
29% |
16% |
19% |
22% |
|
Possibly true |
43% |
41% |
46% |
53% |
45% |
43% |
47% |
45% |
44% |
34% |
|
Definitely not true |
33% |
38% |
27% |
18% |
36% |
36% |
19% |
34% |
32% |
28% |
|
Don't Know |
6% |
5% |
8% |
5% |
6% |
5% |
2% |
5% |
4% |
16% |
|
Refused |
1% |
1% |
|
1% |
0% |
0% |
3% |
0% |
1% |
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
The US government allows drugs to flourish in inner cities in order to imprison more blacks and Latinos. |
||||||||||
|
|
Total |
Race |
Candidate Choice |
Party ID |
||||||
|
White |
Black |
Hispanic |
Trump |
Clinton |
Other |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
||
|
Definitely true |
11% |
7% |
32% |
18% |
7% |
10% |
17% |
9% |
13% |
21% |
|
Possibly true |
30% |
26% |
37% |
33% |
25% |
33% |
31% |
26% |
34% |
6% |
|
Definitely not true |
55% |
63% |
25% |
46% |
65% |
53% |
48% |
63% |
49% |
61% |
|
Don't Know |
4% |
3% |
6% |
3% |
3% |
4% |
2% |
2% |
4% |
12% |
|
Refused |
0% |
1% |
|
|
0% |
|
1% |
0% |
|
|
|
Donald Trump is not releasing his tax returns because they would show his close financial ties to political and business figures in Russia. |
||||||||||
|
|
Total |
Race |
Candidate Choice |
Party ID |
||||||
|
White |
Black |
Hispanic |
Trump |
Clinton |
Other |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
||
|
Definitely true |
18% |
11% |
38% |
36% |
1% |
29% |
20% |
5% |
28% |
29% |
|
Possibly true |
53% |
56% |
49% |
48% |
45% |
56% |
61% |
49% |
57% |
35% |
|
Definitely not true |
21% |
25% |
8% |
12% |
46% |
9% |
13% |
39% |
9% |
24% |
|
Don't Know |
7% |
7% |
4% |
5% |
8% |
4% |
6% |
7% |
5% |
12% |
|
Refused |
0% |
1% |
|
|
0% |
1% |
|
0% |
1% |
|
|
President Obama is hiding important information about his background and early life. |
||||||||||
|
|
Total |
Race |
Candidate Choice |
Party ID |
||||||
|
White |
Black |
Hispanic |
Trump |
Clinton |
Other |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
||
|
Definitely true |
13% |
16% |
6% |
6% |
25% |
2% |
16% |
21% |
5% |
13% |
|
Possibly true |
28% |
28% |
21% |
29% |
43% |
11% |
42% |
43% |
16% |
44% |
|
Definitely not true |
54% |
52% |
71% |
57% |
27% |
84% |
38% |
32% |
77% |
28% |
|
Don't Know |
4% |
3% |
3% |
7% |
5% |
2% |
2% |
4% |
2% |
16% |
|
Refused |
1% |
1% |
|
1% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
|
|
The 2012 shootings at Sandy Hook elementary school in Connecticut were faked, in order to increase support for gun control. |
||||||||||
|
|
Total |
Race |
Candidate Choice |
Party ID |
||||||
|
White |
Black |
Hispanic |
Trump |
Clinton |
Other |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
||
|
Definitely true |
6% |
4% |
8% |
9% |
5% |
5% |
7% |
5% |
5% |
6% |
|
Possibly true |
19% |
15% |
19% |
32% |
18% |
16% |
27% |
23% |
14% |
15% |
|
Definitely not true |
70% |
74% |
68% |
54% |
69% |
75% |
62% |
67% |
76% |
67% |
|
Don't Know |
5% |
4% |
5% |
5% |
7% |
3% |
2% |
4% |
4% |
12% |
|
Refused |
1% |
1% |
|
|
1% |
|
3% |
1% |
1% |
|
|
Global warming is a myth concocted by scientists. |
||||||||||
|
|
Total |
Race |
Candidate Choice |
Party ID |
||||||
|
White |
Black |
Hispanic |
Trump |
Clinton |
Other |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
||
|
Definitely true |
14% |
11% |
22% |
19% |
18% |
12% |
11% |
17% |
11% |
18% |
|
Possibly true |
26% |
26% |
18% |
32% |
42% |
16% |
22% |
37% |
17% |
21% |
|
Definitely not true |
57% |
60% |
54% |
46% |
39% |
70% |
65% |
44% |
70% |
52% |
|
Don't Know |
3% |
3% |
6% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
9% |
|
Refused |
0% |
0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
While she was Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton knew the US Embassy in Benghazi was going to be attacked and did nothing to protect it. |
||||||||||
|
|
Total |
Race |
Candidate Choice |
Party ID |
||||||
|
White |
Black |
Hispanic |
Trump |
Clinton |
Other |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
||
|
Definitely true |
27% |
33% |
12% |
17% |
56% |
4% |
30% |
53% |
8% |
30% |
|
Possibly true |
36% |
35% |
37% |
38% |
34% |
31% |
54% |
34% |
36% |
36% |
|
Definitely not true |
31% |
28% |
44% |
32% |
7% |
58% |
14% |
9% |
50% |
15% |
|
Don't Know |
6% |
3% |
8% |
14% |
4% |
7% |
2% |
3% |
6% |
18% |
|
Refused |
0% |
0% |
|
|
0% |
|
|
0% |
|
|
|
Both political parties rig the primaries so that outsider candidates have a hard time getting the nomination. |
||||||||||
|
|
Total |
Race |
Candidate Choice |
Party ID |
||||||
|
White |
Black |
Hispanic |
Trump |
Clinton |
Other |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
||
|
Definitely true |
21% |
24% |
13% |
19% |
26% |
14% |
31% |
29% |
15% |
30% |
|
Possibly true |
43% |
43% |
41% |
45% |
44% |
42% |
47% |
42% |
45% |
30% |
|
Definitely not true |
28% |
26% |
39% |
31% |
24% |
38% |
16% |
21% |
35% |
27% |
|
Don't Know |
6% |
6% |
7% |
5% |
6% |
5% |
4% |
7% |
4% |
9% |
|
Refused |
1% |
1% |
|
|
0% |
0% |
2% |
0% |
1% |
3% |
Question wording and order:
ELEC1 through ELEC6 released October 5, 2016
Changing topics…
For each of the following statements, could you tell me if it is DEFINITELY TRUE, POSSIBLY TRUE, OR DEFINITELY NOT TRUE
[Rotate items]
CON1 President Bush knew about the 9/11 attacks before they happened.
1 Definitely true
2 Possibly true
3 Definitely not true
8 Don’t know (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
CON2 The US government keeps getting us into conflicts abroad in order to further the interests of the military industrial complex
1 Definitely true
2 Possibly true
3 Definitely not true
8 Don’t know (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
CON3 The US government allows drugs to flourish in inner cities in order to imprison more blacks and Latinos.
1 Definitely true
2 Possibly true
3 Definitely not true
8 Don’t know (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
CON4 Donald Trump is not releasing his tax returns because they would show his close financial ties to political and business figures in Russia.
1 Definitely true
2 Possibly true
3 Definitely not true
8 Don’t know (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
CON5 President Obama is hiding important information about his background and early life
1 Definitely true
2 Possibly true
3 Definitely not true
8 Don’t know (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
CON6 The 2012 shootings at Sandy Hook elementary school in Connecticut were faked, in order to increase support for gun control.
1 Definitely true
2 Possibly true
3 Definitely not true
8 Don’t know (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
CON7 Global warming is a myth concocted by scientists
1 Definitely true
2 Possibly true
3 Definitely not true
8 Don’t know (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
CON8 While she was Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton knew the US Embassy in Benghazi was going to be attacked and did nothing to protect it.
1 Definitely true
2 Possibly true
3 Definitely not true
8 Don’t know (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
CON9 Both political parties rig the primaries so that outsider candidates have a hard time getting the nomination
1 Definitely true
2 Possibly true
3 Definitely not true
8 Don’t know (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
|
Gender |
Male |
49% |
|
|
Female |
51% |
|
Age |
18-29 |
22% |
|
|
30-44 |
23% |
|
|
45-64 |
35% |
|
|
65+ |
20% |
|
Race |
White Non-Hispanic |
63% |
|
|
Black Non-Hispanic |
11% |
|
|
Hispanic |
15% |
|
Education |
HS or less |
44% |
|
|
Some college |
25% |
|
|
College grad |
32% |