For immediate release Monday, July 11, 2016                                   5 pages

Contact: Krista Jenkins 973.443.8390; kjenkins@fdu.edu

Voters Against Casino Expansion,
Support Transportation Trust Fund Amendment

Fairleigh Dickinson University, July 11, 2016 – New Jersey voters will have the opportunity to weigh in on matters other than the presidential race in November. Before them will also be two proposed amendments to the state constitution. The most recent statewide survey from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind finds that if the election were held today, one would pass by the slimmest of margins, while the other would go down in defeat.

The casino expansion amendment: Voter disapproval

Thirty-five percent of respondents are currently in favor of a proposed amendment which would allow two counties in northern New Jersey to each have one new casino, in addition to those that exist in Atlantic City. The same number support casino expansion more generally when it is not tied to a particular amendment. Fifty-seven percent are opposed to the amendment and 58 percent are opposed more generally. In January 2016, 42 percent said they supported expanding casino gambling to other areas in the state beyond Atlantic City, with 50 percent opposed.

“PublicMind has been asking about casino expansion since 2009. Support for casino expansion is about where it was in 2015,” said Krista Jenkins, professor of political science and director of PublicMind. “Getting people to a casino first seems to help drive support. But even among those who have dropped some chips on a table or coins into a machine, a majority are opposed to expansion beyond AC.”

Majority opposition is consistent among Republicans and Democrats, men and women, and all other demographic groups considered.

“Favorable attitudes toward expansion have never been part of the landscape. This suggests the supporters of this amendment will continue to experience an uphill battle convincing voters that casinos beyond Atlantic City are a worthwhile investment in local economies,” said Jenkins.

The Transportation Trust Fund amendment: Voter approval

Fifty-one percent of registered voters say they will support the Gas Tax Dedicated to Transportation Funding Amendment. A third (34%) are opposed. This amendment, if passed, would require all revenue from gas taxes to go to the failing Transportation Trust Fund in order to pay for transportation projects. Support for this amendment is virtually unchanged from January 2016, when a similar question was asked (49% favor; 30% oppose).

“With TTF funding soon to run out, and various solutions floated recently by the Governor and legislature seemingly going nowhere, voters remain lukewarm to the idea of amending the state constitution in order to address the TTF’s shortfall,” said Jenkins. “The amendment would ensure that money already being collected go entirely to the TTF’s road projects. Despite this, there is not an overwhelming degree of support.”

Democrats (58%) and independents (51%) support the amendment more than Republicans (39%). Republican support is down from where it was in January 2016 (51%).

Over a third (38%) have been paying attention to news about the proposed amendment, with almost one-in-five paying a lot of attention (17%).

PublicMind recently received an “A” rating from statistician Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog. The ratings measure both accuracy and bias for all major polling services in the United States, providing an update to similar research the poll watchers conducted in 2014. PublicMind’s “A” rating puts it in the top 14 of the more than 380 polling institutes reviewed and graded from A+ through F PublicMind was found to have a 94 percent accuracy rate for predicting election results, and is one of only two A-rated polling institutes with zero bias to their rankings.

Methodology

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from June 22-26, 2016 using a randomly selected sample of 712 self-identified registered voters in New Jersey. One can be 95 percent confident that the error attributable to sampling has a range of +/-3.8 percentage points, including the design effect.

The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

Landline households are supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cell-phone respondents interviewed in the same time frame. The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of gender, age, education, and race. 396 interviews were conducted on landlines and 316 were conducted on cellular telephones.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

Tables

 

Please tell me how much you’ve heard or read about a proposed amendment to the state’s constitution, known as the Casino Expansion Amendment?
		PID			Gender		Race		Education		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	HS/Some college	College+	18-34	35-59	60+
A lot	10%	10	11	10	14	6	9	11	10	10	6	10	13
Some	14%	14	13	17	14	15	16	13	10	18	10	16	16
Just a little	24%	26	23	20	23	25	22	27	23	25	23	25	23
Nothing at all	51%	50	52	51	49	53	51	49	57	46	61	48	47
DK (vol)	1%	0	1	2	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1
Refused (vol)	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

 

If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no [rotate] on this amendment, which would  allow two counties in northern New Jersey to each have one new casino, in addition to those that exist in Atlantic City?
		PID			Gender		Race		Education		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	HS/Some college	College+	18-34	35-59	60+
Yes	35%	35	37	33	37	33	34	37	38	33	41	37	29
No	57%	57	58	59	56	58	56	58	55	59	57	55	60
DK (vol)	8%	8	5	8	7	9	9	5	7	8	2	8	11
Refused (vol)	0%	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

 

If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no [rotate] on this amendment, which would  allow two counties in northern New Jersey to each have one new casino, in addition to those that exist in Atlantic City?
		Been to a casino
	All	Yes	No
Yes	35%	42	32
No	57%	52	60
DK (vol)	8%	6	8
Refused (vol)	0%	0	0

 

In general, do you favor or oppose [rotate] expanding casino gambling to other areas in the state besides Atlantic City?
		PID			Gender		Race		Education		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	HS/Some college	College+	18-34	35-59	60+
Yes	35%	36	35	34	37	33	36	35	38	33	37	38	30
No	58%	55	63	60	58	57	57	58	54	60	57	54	63
DK (vol)	7%	8	1	5	4	9	6	6	7	6	6	7	6
Refused (vol)	1%	0	2	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0

 

In general, do you favor or oppose [rotate] expanding casino gambling to other areas in the state besides Atlantic City?
		Been to a casino
	All	Yes	No
Yes	35%	43	32
No	58%	54	60
DK (vol)	7%	3	8
Refused (vol)	1%	0	1

 

Trend: Attitudes toward casino expansion beyond Atlantic City
	May 2016	Jan 2016	June 2015	Feb 2015	July 2014	June 2010	Feb 2009
Favor	35%	42%	37%	36%	42%	42%	24%
Oppose	58%	50%	56%	57%	50%	49%	70%
DK/Ref (vol)	8%	9%	6%	8%	8%	9%	6%

 

Please tell me how much you’ve heard or read about a proposed amendment to the state’s constitution, known as the Gas Tax Dedicated to Transportation Funding Amendment?
		PID			Gender		Race		Education		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	HS/Some college	College+	18-34	35-59	60+
A lot	17%	14	23	18	21	13	17	16	17	17	6	19	21
Some	21%	22	17	21	21	21	25	14	18	24	17	22	22
Just a little	25%	26	17	26	24	26	24	27	25	25	24	24	27
Nothing at all	36%	36	42	33	33	39	34	41	39	33	53	33	28
DK (vol)	1%	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	2
Refused (vol)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

 

If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no [rotate] on this amendment, which would require all revenue from gas taxes to go to the Transportation Trust Fund in order to pay for transportation projects?
		PID			Gender		Race		Education		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	HS/Some college	College+	18-34	35-59	60+
Yes	51%	58	51	39	52	49	49	55	50	51	57	46	53
No	34%	24	41	45	36	32	35	30	33	35	35	34	33
DK (vol)	15%	17	7	14	12	18	15	14	17	13	7	19	14
Refused (vol)	1%	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1

 

January 2016 Do you favor or oppose [rotate] amending the state constitution and requiring the state to make all revenue from the gasoline tax go to the transportation trust fund?
		PID
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub
Favor	49%	50	50	51
Oppose	30%	29	32	31
DK (vol)	19%	21	16	17
Refused (vol)	1%	1	2	1

 

Exact Question Wording and Order

US1 & US2 released June 30, 2016

 

NJ1 & NJ2 released June 30, 2016    

 

PRES1 through PRES5 released June 29, 2016

 

AMEND1         Please tell me how much you’ve heard or read about a proposed amendment to the state’s constitution, known as the Gas Tax Dedicated to Transportation Funding Amendment?

1          A lot

2          Some

3          Just a little

4          Nothing at all

8          DK (vol)         

9          Refused (vol)  

 

AMEND1A   If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no [rotate] on this amendment, which would require all revenue from gas taxes to go to the Transportation Trust Fund in order to pay for transportation projects?

1          Yes

2          No

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

 

AMEND2    Please tell me how much you’ve heard or read about a proposed amendment to the state’s constitution, known as the Casino Expansion Amendment?

1          A lot

2          Some

3          Just a little

4          Nothing at all

8          DK (vol)         

9          Refused (vol)  

 

AMEND2A  If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no [rotate] on this amendment, which would allow two counties in northern New Jersey to each have one new casino, in addition to those that exist in Atlantic City?

1          Yes

2          No

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

 

AMEND2B  In general, do you favor or oppose expanding casino gambling to other areas in the state besides Atlantic City?

1          Favor                          

2          Oppose

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

 

Sample characteristics (weighted)

Gender	Male	49%
	Female	51%
Age	18-34	23%
	35-59	42%
	60+	34%
	Refused	1%
Race	White	67%
	African American	12%
	Hispanic	13%
	Asian	4%
	Other/Refused	3%
Party (with leaners)	Dem	48%
	Ind/DK/Refused	17%
	Repub	35%