For immediate release Monday, November 23, 2015             5 pages          

Contact: Krista Jenkins 973.443.8390; kjenkins@fdu.edu

New Jerseyans Lack Trust in Either Party to Fix The State’s Problems

Fairleigh Dickinson University, Monday, November 23, 2015  - New Jersey has its share of problems. High taxes, the public employee pension fund, crumbling roads and bridges...to name just a few. As New Jersey nears the end of the Christie years, who do the people trust to fix them? Republicans or Democrats? A new survey of registered voters in New Jersey from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind finds that the answer is a resounding “neither.”

When asked which of the two major parties people trust to fix the problems facing the state, 22 percent say they favor Republicans, with 27 percent who point to the Democratic party. By far, however, the biggest vote getter is neither party, with 47%. Almost half of those surveyed have little, if any, faith in either political party to provide workable solutions to the state’s troubled finances and the myriad of other problems that continue to vex policymakers.

Predictably, Democrats and Republicans break for their own parties, with 62 percent of both groups putting their faith with leaders from the same party. However, a full third of each group reject their own parties and believe neither party offers much in the way of leadership. The all important independents, or those who do not reflexively identify with either party (and who comprise a third of the electorate) look upon each party with about the same degree of disfavor. Fourteen percent of independents look to Republicans, 13 percent trust Democrats, with two-thirds (67%) who believe both parties are useless.

“Leadership is clearly up for grabs in the Garden State. People want solutions and these numbers suggest neither party can be trusted with leading the state to brighter days,” said Krista Jenkins, professor of political science and director of PublicMind.

If the parties can’t be trusted, is anyone poised to personify trusted leadership in the state? A spate of names have been floated as possible 2017 gubernatorial contenders to replace Chris Christie. At this early stage, the name of the game is simple recognition, and the most widely known personality is State Senate President Steve Sweeney (LD 3). Forty-five percent have heard of Senator Sweeney with about equal numbers who view him favorably (17%) as unfavorably (16%).  Behind him is current Lieutenant Governor Republican Kim Guadagno, with 31 percent name recognition (11 percent favorable; 10% unfavorable).

 Democrats other than Sweeney are known by significantly fewer across the state. State Senator Raymond Lesniak (LD 20) is known by 28 percent of residents, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop is recognized by 18 percent, and former US Ambassador to Germany Phil Murphy is known to 11 percent.

On the Republican side, in addition to Lieutenant Governor Guadagno, Assemblyman Jon Bramnick (LD 21) is familiar to 11 percent.

“As PublicMind reported last week, record numbers of residents believe the state is headed down the wrong track. Not only are people pessimistic about New Jersey’s future, they also doubt the parties can do anything about it,” said Jenkins.

 

Methodology - The Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind survey was conducted by landline and cellular telephone November 9 -15, 2015 among a random statewide sample of 830 self-identified registered voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.9 points, including the design effect.

Methodology

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from November 9-15, using a randomly selected sample of 830 self-identified registered voters in New Jersey. One can be 95 percent confident that the error attributable to sampling has a range of +/- 3.9 percentage points, including the design effect. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

Landline households are supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cell-phone respondents interviewed in the same time frame. The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of gender, age, education, and race. 427 interviews were conducted on landlines and 403 were conducted on cellular telephones.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

Tables

I’m going to read you some names. Can you tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable [rotate] opinion of each person, or if you’ve never heard of them? [Rotate names]
	Haven’t heard of			Favorable			Unfavorable			Unsure
Steve Sweeney	55%			17%			16%			12%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub
	57	55	51	19	15	13	12	20	22	12	10	14
Steven Fulop	82%			9%			3%			6%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub
	21	14	14	12	7	5	2	2	3	7	5	6
Phil Murphy	89%			3%			3%			5%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub
	86	91	92	5	2	1	4	2	3	5	5	5
Raymond Lesniak	72%			9%			8%			11%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub
	74	74	68	10	9	6	5	9	12	11	9	13
Jon Bramnick	89%			4%			3%			4%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub
	87	90	90	5	3	4	4	3	2	4	3	5
Kim Guadagno	69%			11%			10%			10%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub
	71	70	64	6	13	19	15	8	5	8	9	12

 

Sweeney: Trend        Haven’t heard                       Favorable        Unfavorable                Unsure

11/15                           55%                             17%                 16%                             12%

4/15                             56%                             13%                 15%                             16%

9/14                             46%                             16%                 15%                             23%

1/13                             56%                             11%                 17%                             16%

1/12                             57%                             13%                 14%                             16%                            

Fulop: Trend             Haven’t heard            Favorable        Unfavorable                Unsure

11/15                           82%                             9%                   3%                               6%

4/15                             87%                             5%                   2%                               6%

9/14                             85%                             6%                   2%                               7%

 

Murphy: Trend         Haven’t heard            Favorable        Unfavorable                Unsure

11/15                           89%                             3%                   3%                               5%

4/15                             88%                             4%                   2%                               6%

 

Guadagno: Trend     Haven’t heard                       Favorable        Unfavorable                Unsure

11/15                           69%                             11%                 10%                             10%

9/14                             68%                             11%                 10%                             10%

8/13                             75%                             9%                   4%                               12%

8/12                             76%                             9%                   5%                               10%

 

Bramnick: Trend      Haven’t heard                       Favorable        Unfavorable                Unsure

11/15                           89%                             4%                   3%                               4%

6/14                             86%                             4%                   3%                               7%

 

 

Which of the two major political parties do you trust the most to fix what’s wrong with New Jersey, or do you trust neither?
		PID			Gender		Race		Age
	All	Dem (no leaners)	Ind	Repub (no leaners)	Male	Female	White	Non-white	18-34	35-59	60+
Republicans	22%	3	14	62	24	20	28	11	15	23	25
Democrats	27%	62	13	2	26	29	21	41	34	26	24
Neither	47%	32	67	34	47	46	47	44	49	45	47
DK (vol)	4%	3	5	2	3	4	3	4	2	5	4
Refused (vol)	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0

 

Exact question wording and order

US1 and US2 withheld

NJ1 and NJ2 released November 17, 2015

 

NJ3      Which of the two major political parties do you trust the most to fix what’s wrong with New Jersey, or do you trust neither?

1          Republicans

2          Democrats

3          Neither

8          DK (vol)         

9          Refused (vol)  

 

SEX1 and SEX2 withheld for future release

 

PRES1 through PRES4 withheld for future release

 

Please tell me if you’ve heard of the following people, and whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each. [Rotate names]

ID1      Stephen Sweeney 

ID2      Steven Fulop [FULL –up]

ID3      Raymond Lesniak [LEZ-ne-ak]

ID4      Phil  Murphy

ID5      Kim Guadagno [GWA-DAH-no]

ID6      Jon Bramnick

 

1          Favorable

2          Unfavorable

3          Haven’t heard

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

 

 

Weighted sample characteristics

		Registered voters N = 830; MoE = +/- 3.9
Gender	Male	49%
	Female	51%
Age	18-34	25%
	35-59	42%
	60+	32%
	Refused	1%
Race	White	64%
	African American	11%
	Hispanic	16%
	Asian	5%
	Other/Refused	4%
Union household	Self	14%
	Someone else	10%
	No/Refused/DK	76%
Party (with leaners)	Dem	46%
	Ind/DK/Refused	17%
	Repub	37%