For immediate release Wednesday, October 14, 2015 8pp.
Contact: Dan Cassino, dcassino@fdu.edu @dancassino 973.896.7072
Krista Jenkins; kjenkins@fdu.edu 973.443.8390
Fairleigh Dickinson University, October 14, 2015 — Americans don’t know much about politics, but voters who have been paying attention to the news and are knowledgeable about government structure and processes are much less likely to support presidential frontrunners Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump.
According to the most recent national survey of registered voters from Fairleigh Dickinson’s PublicMind, Clinton and Trump lead among voters who prefer to tune out from the news and are unable to answer basic questions about their government.
In sharp contrast, voters who are following the news and are also familiar with the governmental landscape are much more likely to say they support Ben Carson and Marco Rubio on the Republican side, and Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden on the Democratic side.
To determine their levels of government knowledge, the poll asked registered voters three questions about American government. First, they were asked to name the three branches of government (34 percent could do so). Second, they were asked which party controls the House of Representatives; 69 percent of registered voters know that it’s the Republicans. Finally, and perhaps the most difficult question, they were asked to name the current Chief Justice of the Supreme Court: only 21 percent of registered voters know that it’s John Roberts.
While the questions may seem elementary, only 12 percent of registered voters were able to answer all three correctly. One-quarter (25%) weren’t able to answer any of the three, 37 percent answered one question correctly, and 27 percent answered two of the three correctly. Republicans were slightly better than Democrats and independents at answering the questions: the average Republican answered 1.3 questions correctly, compared to 1.0 for Democrats, and 1.1 for independents.
More educated respondents were better equipped to answer the questions (Americans with undergraduate degrees averaged 1.5 correct; those with graduate degrees 1.6). Older Americans and white Americans also fared better than average on these items.
Registered voters with higher levels of political knowledge view the presidential race very differently from those with low levels of knowledge. Fifty-eight percent of registered Republicans answered none, or just one of the questions correctly, and for them, Donald Trump is the clear favorite, beating second place contender Ben Carson 31 percent to 15 percent, with Mike Huckabee coming in a distant third at eight percent.
“People who aren’t paying much attention to the race overall tend to support candidates who are getting a lot of media, or candidates who are leading in the polls,” said Cassino. “Right now, that’s Trump, but that’s not exactly a solid foundation for a campaign.”
Among registered Republicans who answered two or three questions correctly, Ben Carson has a sizeable 31 percent to 18 percent lead over Trump. Florida Senator Marco Rubio comes in third, with 12 percent support (up from 5 percent among less informed Republicans).
“Carson is perceived as a more electable outsider candidate than Trump, so his numbers among more informed voters are higher,” said Cassino. “If his poll numbers and media visibility increase, he can expect to improve among less informed voters, as well.”
For the 69 percent of Democrats who answered none, or just one of the political knowledge questions correctly, Hillary Clinton leads her closest rival, Bernie Sanders, by a 49 percent to 19 percent margin, while Vice-President Joe Biden draws in 15 percent. Clinton still leads among more knowledgeable Democrats, but by a much smaller margin. Among the 31 percent of Democrats who answered 2 or 3 of the political knowledge questions correctly, Clinton’s support drops to 37 percent, with Sanders nearly doubling to 32 percent, and Biden pulling in 21 percent.
“It isn’t so much that Clinton does poorly among voters who are paying attention,” said Cassino. “Rather, the story seems to be that less informed voters just haven’t seen anything about the other candidates.”
Methodology - The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone October 1-5, 2015 among a random national sample of 824 registered voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of +/- 4.1 percentage points, including the design effect.
Methodology, questions, and tables on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.edu
Radio actualities at 201.692.2846 For more information, please call 201.692.7032
Methodology
The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from October 1-5, 2015 using a randomly selected sample of 824 registered voters nationwide. One can be 95 percent confident that the error attributable to sampling has a range of +/- 4.1 percentage points, including the design effect. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.
Interviews were conducted by SSRS of Media, Pennsylvania, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline or cellular phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.
The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, sex, race, and education. 452 interviews were conducted on landlines and 372 were conducted on cellular telephones.
The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.
Tables
|
Do you happen to know any of the three branches of government? [item repeated for each of the three branches, as needed] |
|||||||||
|
|
Sex |
Party ID |
Education |
||||||
|
|
All |
Male |
Female |
Rep |
Dem |
Independent |
HS less |
Some coll |
Coll post |
|
None |
30% |
26% |
34% |
23% |
37% |
28% |
57% |
18% |
10% |
|
One |
22% |
20% |
23% |
21% |
23% |
23% |
18% |
25% |
24% |
|
Two |
14% |
15% |
13% |
16% |
13% |
13% |
10% |
19% |
14% |
|
Three |
34% |
40% |
30% |
40% |
28% |
37% |
16% |
38% |
53% |
|
Just your best guess… do you know which party controls the House of Representatives? |
|||||||||
|
|
Sex |
Party ID |
Education |
||||||
|
|
All |
Male |
Female |
Rep |
Demo |
Independent |
HS less |
Some coll |
Coll post |
|
Republicans |
69% |
73% |
67% |
73% |
67% |
70% |
61% |
67% |
81% |
|
Democrats |
14% |
12% |
17% |
17% |
12% |
13% |
17% |
14% |
12% |
|
Don't Know |
16% |
16% |
16% |
10% |
21% |
16% |
21% |
19% |
8% |
|
Refused |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
|
And again, just your best guess, can you tell me who the current Chief Justice of the Supreme Court is? |
|||||||||
|
|
Sex |
Party ID |
Education |
||||||
|
|
All |
Male |
Female |
Rep |
Demo |
Independent |
HS less |
Some coll |
Coll post |
|
John Roberts |
21% |
27% |
16% |
23% |
21% |
22% |
10% |
24% |
32% |
|
Someone Else |
12% |
11% |
14% |
12% |
14% |
12% |
13% |
10% |
13% |
|
Don't Know |
66% |
62% |
69% |
64% |
65% |
65% |
77% |
65% |
54% |
|
Refused |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
Number of Political Knowledge Questions Answered Correctly |
|||||||||
|
|
Sex |
Party ID |
Education |
||||||
|
|
All |
Male |
Female |
Rep |
Demo |
Independent |
HS less |
Some coll |
Coll post |
|
None |
25% |
23% |
26% |
20% |
27% |
25% |
34% |
27% |
14% |
|
One |
37% |
30% |
43% |
38% |
41% |
32% |
49% |
31% |
27% |
|
Two |
27% |
31% |
23% |
27% |
21% |
32% |
13% |
30% |
41% |
|
Three |
12% |
16% |
8% |
15% |
11% |
10% |
4% |
13% |
19% |
|
I'm going to read you a list of current and prospective candidates for the Republican nomination for president. If the election were held today, who would you vote for? N = 305; MoE +/- 5.6 |
||||||
|
|
Questions Answered Correctly |
Qs Answered Correctly |
||||
|
No questions answered correctly |
Correct to One Question |
Correct to Two Questions |
Correct to Three Questions |
0 or 1 |
2 or 3 |
|
|
Sample Size |
43 |
81 |
57 |
31 |
124 |
88 |
|
Jeb Bush |
2% |
8% |
12% |
5% |
6% |
10% |
|
Ben Carson |
15% |
15% |
32% |
31% |
15% |
31% |
|
Chris Christie |
7% |
3% |
4% |
0% |
4% |
2% |
|
Ted Cruz |
3% |
5% |
2% |
13% |
4% |
6% |
|
Carly Fiorina |
5% |
5% |
7% |
10% |
5% |
9% |
|
Lindsey Graham |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
|
Mike Huckabee |
12% |
6% |
4% |
3% |
8% |
3% |
|
Bobby Jindal |
0% |
2% |
0% |
3% |
1% |
1% |
|
John Kasich |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
|
Rand Paul |
5% |
4% |
2% |
3% |
5% |
2% |
|
Marco Rubio |
5% |
6% |
12% |
10% |
5% |
12% |
|
Rick Santorum |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
|
Donald Trump |
24% |
35% |
17% |
21% |
31% |
18% |
|
Other |
0% |
1% |
0% |
3% |
1% |
1% |
|
Wouldn't vote |
2% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
|
Don't know |
19% |
6% |
2% |
0% |
11% |
2% |
|
Refused |
2% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
|
I'm going to read you a list of current and prospective candidates for the Democratic nomination for president. If the election were held today, who would you vote for? N = 339; MoE +/- 5.3 |
||||||
|
|
Questions Answered Correctly |
Qs Answered Correctly |
||||
|
No questions answered correctly |
Correct to One Question |
Correct to Two Questions |
Correct to Three Questions |
0 or 1 |
2 or 3 |
|
|
Sample Size |
67 |
99 |
52 |
26 |
165 |
78 |
|
Joe Biden |
11% |
16% |
18% |
26% |
15% |
21% |
|
Lincoln Chafee |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
|
Hillary Clinton |
48% |
50% |
36% |
43% |
49% |
37% |
|
Laurence Lessig |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
Martin O'Malley |
1% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
|
Bernie Sanders |
15% |
21% |
36% |
23% |
19% |
32% |
|
Jim Webb |
1% |
0% |
0% |
3% |
0% |
1% |
|
Other |
3% |
2% |
0% |
0% |
2% |
0% |
|
Wouldn't vote |
4% |
5% |
3% |
0% |
4% |
2% |
|
Don't know |
14% |
5% |
5% |
6% |
8% |
5% |
|
Refused |
3% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
|
Which of the following is most important to you personally? Voting for someone who thinks the same as you about important issues or voting for someone who can win? |
|||||||||
|
|
Qs Answered Correctly |
Party ID |
Education |
||||||
|
|
All |
0 or 1 |
2 or 3 |
Rep |
Dem |
Independent |
HS less |
Some coll |
Coll post |
|
Issues |
82% |
86% |
75% |
81% |
83% |
82% |
83% |
82% |
79% |
|
Can Win |
14% |
10% |
20% |
17% |
14% |
11% |
13% |
12% |
16% |
|
Don't Know |
4% |
4% |
4% |
2% |
3% |
6% |
4% |
5% |
4% |
|
Refused |
1% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
ELEC2 How much are you following news about the 2016 presidential nominating contest?
1 Very closely
2 Somewhat closely
3 Not at all closely
8 DK (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
ELEC3 How satisfied or unsatisfied [rotate] are you with the process for choosing the candidates for US president?
1 Very satisfied
2 Satisfied
3 Unsatisfied
4 Very unsatisfied
8 DK (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
ELEC4 In general, would you say you’re optimistic or pessimistic [rotate] that the nomination process will result in good choices next November?
1 Optimistic
2 Pessimistic
8 DK (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
ELEC5 How would you rate the job the media is doing so far in covering the presidential nominating contest?
1 Excellent
2 Good
3 Only fair
4 Poor
8 DK (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
D1 Regardless of who you might vote for, do you consider yourself a….ROTATE…
Democrat, a Republican, or an Independent?
1 Democrat
2 Republican
3 Independent [If Independent, ask D1b]
4 Other [DON’T READ]
8 Don’t Know [DON’T READ]
9 Ref [DON’T READ]
D1b Which way do you lean?
1 Democrat
2 Republican
3 Neither
8 DK (Vol)
SEX1 and SEX2 withheld for future release
PRESRA I’m going to read you a list of current and prospective candidates for the Republican nomination for president. If the election were held today, who would you vote for? (READ LIST)
1 Jeb Bush
2 Ben Carson
3 Chris Christie
4 Ted Cruz
5 Carly Fiorina
6 Jim Gilmore
7 Lindsey Graham
8 Mike Huckabee
9 Bobby Jindal
10 John Kasich
11 George Pataki
12 Rand Paul
13 Marco Rubio
14 Rick Santorum
15 Donald Trump
16 Other (vol)
17 Wouldn’t vote (vol)
98 DK (vol)
99 Refused (vol)
PRESDA I’m going to read you a list of declared and potential candidates for the Democratic nomination for president. If the election were held today, who would you vote for? (READ LIST)
1 Joe Biden
2 Lincoln Chafee
3 Hillary Clinton
4 Laurence Lessig [LESS-ig]
5 Martin O’Malley
6 Bernie Sanders
7 JimWebb
8 Other (vol)
9 Wouldn’t vote (vol)
98 DK (vol)
99 Refused (vol)
PRES2 Which of the following is most important to you personally? Voting for someone
who thinks about important issues like me OR voting for someone who can win [rotate]?
1 Issues
2 Can win
8 DK (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
Sample Characteristics
|
Gender |
Women |
52% |
|
|
Men |
48% |
|
Age |
18-29 |
17% |
|
|
30-44 |
22% |
|
|
45-64 |
36% |
|
|
65+ |
23% |
|
|
Refused |
2% |
|
Race |
White |
70% |
|
|
Non-white |
30% |
|
Party (with leaners) |
Republican |
37% |
|
|
Democrat |
42% |
|
|
Ind/Ref/DK |
21% |