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Embargo until 5 am on Tuesday, March 28

Contact: Krista Jenkins 973.443.8390; kjenkins@fdu.edu

Guadagno and Murphy Ahead with Majority Still Undecided;

Christie And State Government Get a Big Thumbs Down

Fairleigh Dickinson University, March 28, 2017 – There’s not a lot of love for state government these days, as the most recent survey of registered voters from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind finds a majority expressing displeasure for both the governor and the state government in Trenton. And, a majority of both Democrats and Republicans remain undecided in whom they like for the upcoming gubernatorial primary.

Seventy-two percent of voters say they disapprove of the governor’s leadership with 20 percent who approve. These numbers are statistically unchanged from January; the last time the same question was asked about the governor’s job performance. Even a minority of Republicans are happy with the governor. Forty percent approve of the job he’s been doing of late, with 52 percent who disapprove.

“As the clock continues to advance toward the end of his administration, Governor Christie remains mired in a world of public displeasure,” said Krista Jenkins, professor of political science and director of the FDU poll. “His twenty percent approval rating puts him in the company of relatively few who left office while being held in such low public regard. And the fact that so few believe the state is headed in the right direction under his leadership underscores the frustration that many feel.”

Barely a quarter (24%) believe the state is on a good path, with 67 percent who think otherwise. As with the governor’s job approval numbers, right direction/wrong track numbers remain upside down in largely the same territory they have been in recent polls.

As for who is likely to replace Governor Christie in November, the increasingly crowded field on both sides remains open. Republican Kim Guadagno and Democrat Phil Murphy have a sizable lead over their opponents, but the dominant response remains “don’t know.”

On the Democratic side, former U.S. Ambassador to Germany Phil Murphy garners 23 percent support, with his closest competitors significantly behind. Murphy is up six percentage points from the last time the question was asked (17%) in January. Although Murphy is doing well with those who have an opinion, over half (53%) remain uncertain whom among the long list of candidates they will support in June.

Two-term Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno is the frontrunner among Republicans with 24 percent support. This is six percentage points better than what the FDU poll found in January (18%). As with Murphy, Guadagno’s competitors are running significantly behind, and the dominant response among self-identified Republicans is “don’t know” (54%).

“With a little more than two months until the June 6 primary, Guadagno and Murphy look good among those with an opinion, but there’s still lots of room for others to capture the attention of voters who remain unimpressed with what they’ve seen so far,” said Jenkins.

Regardless of who wins in November, the poll finds that state government in general fares poorly in the eyes of the public. Low regard for elected officials extends well beyond Governor Christie. Voters were asked a number of questions about their feelings toward state government, and across all measures, voter discontent runs broad and deep.[1]

For example, when asked if they find themselves feeling content, frustrated, or angry with the state government, 18 percent are content, with around the same number saying they’re angry (21%) and a majority feeling frustrated (58%). Frustration prevails across all of the groups considered, with some differences apparent by party and age. For example, Republicans (23%) are the most content among partisans with Democrats the most angry (23%). And, a quarter of Millennials (24%) feel content when they think of state government.

The pessimism continues when it comes to public perceptions of state run programs, as only 15 percent evaluate the job the state government does as “excellent” or “good,” with 83 percent who regard the state’s performance as “only fair” or “poor.”

There is also not a deep reservoir of trust between elected officials in Trenton and their constituents. Unconditional trust is more of a dream than a reality, as only one percent say they always trust state officials to do what’s right. That number increases to 11 percent when the standard of trust is loosened a bit to include those who trust government “most” of the time. Instead, far more voters say they never believe Trenton legislators are doing the right thing. Twenty-three percent say they never trust state officials to do what’s right, with another 65 percent whose trust can be relied upon some of the time.

And finally, when asked whether they regard state government as a friend or enemy, voters are somewhere in the middle. On a ten-point scale, with one meaning an enemy and ten indicating a friend, the average response was a six.

“Although it’s easy to scapegoat problems with state government by pointing the finger at the guy at the top, it’s clear that Governor Christie isn’t the sole source of voter discontent. There’s a lot of work to do by legislators and the next governor to reconnect the public to local government,” said Jenkins.

Methodology, questions, and tables on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.edu

Radio actualities at 201.692.2846 For more information, please call 201.692.7032

Methodology - The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone March 22-26, 2017 among a random sample of 758 registered voters in New Jersey. Results have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.9 percentage points, including the design effect.

Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, sex, race, and education. 418 interviews were conducted on landlines and 340 were conducted on cellular telephones.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

PublicMind recently received an “A” rating from statistician Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog. The ratings measure both accuracy and bias for all major polling services in the United States, providing an update to similar research the poll watchers conducted in 2014. PublicMind’s “A” rating puts it in the top 14 of the more than 380 polling institutes reviewed and graded from A+ through F. PublicMind was found to have a 94 percent accuracy rate for predicting election results, and is one of only two A-rated polling institutes with zero bias to their rankings.

Tables

And turning to New Jersey, do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is doing as governor? [Randomize approve/disapprove]
		PID			Gender		Race		Education		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	HS/Some college	College+	18-34	35-59	60+
Approve	20%	8	22	40	21	19	20	19	21	19	16	20	23
Disapprove	72%	84	70	52	70	73	71	73	71	72	69	75	71
Neither/ Neutral (vol)	4%	4	4	3	4	3	3	5	4	4	7	2	2
DK/Both (vol)	4%	3	2	4	3	4	4	2	3	4	8	2	2
Refused (vol)	1%	1	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

In your opinion, do you think things in New Jersey are moving in the right direction or are they on the wrong track? [Randomize right direction/wrong track]
		PID			Gender		Race		Education		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	HS/Some college	College+	18-34	35-59	60+
Right direction	24%	20	22	32	26	22	22	28	28	22	31	23	19
Wrong track	67%	71	68	61	67	68	70	62	66	68	55	72	74
DK (vol)	8%	8	9	7	6	10	7	10	5	10	13	5	6
Refused (vol)	1%	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1

Some people say they are basically content with the state government, others say they are frustrated, and others say they are angry. Which of these best describes how you feel?
		PID			Gender		Race		Education		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	HS/Some college	College+	18-34	35-59	60+
Content	18%	13	19	23	17	18	18	18	19	17	24	15	15
Frustrated	58%	60	61	56	58	59	58	59	58	59	55	63	55
Angry	21%	23	18	17	19	22	21	20	21	20	15	20	28
DK (vol)	3%	3	1	3	4	1	2	3	2	3	6	1	1
Refused (vol)	1%	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	1	1	0

All in all, how good a job does the state government do in running its programs? An excellent job, a good job, only a fair job, or a poor job?
		PID			Gender		Race		Education		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	HS/Some college	College+	18-34	35-59	60+
Excellent	1%	0	2	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	0
Good	14%	12	12	17	12	15	15	11	14	14	15	13	12
Only fair	55%	57	52	54	52	58	56	53	55	55	55	56	55
Poor	28%	28	33	25	32	25	26	33	28	29	27	28	30
DK (vol)	2%	2	1	2	3	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3
Refused (vol)	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0

How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Trenton to do what is right? Just about always, most of the time, some of the time, or do you believe it can’t be trusted to do what’s right ever?
		PID			Gender		Race		Education		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	HS/Some college	College+	18-34	35-59	60+
Always	1%	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	2	1	0
Most	10%	10	11	10	10	10	11	7	10	10	10	10	9
Some	65%	70	60	61	61	69	65	69	65	65	69	63	64
No trust	23%	18	28	27	26	19	22	22	25	22	18	24	25
DK (vol)	1%	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1
Refused (vol)	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0

Some people think of the state government as a friend or protector. Others see it as bother, or even an enemy. On a scale of 1-10, where 1 means you think the state government is your enemy, and 10 means you think the state government is your friend, where on this scale would you place yourself?

PID

Gender

Race

Education

Age

All

Dem

Ind

Repub

Male

Female

White

Non-white

HS/Some college

College+

18-34

35-59

60+

Mean

I know it’s early, but if the election for the Democratic/Republican nominee for governor was held today, which of the following would you be the most likely to support? [Rotate order of candidates]
	Democratic [N = 386; MoE +/- 5]		Republican [N = 216; MoE +/- 6.7]
Bill Brennan	2%	Jack Ciattarelli	5%
Monica Brinson	1%	Kim Guadagno	24%
Bob Hoatson	1%	Steve Rogers	1%
Jim Johnson	4%	Joseph Rullo	1%
Raymond Lesniak	3%	Hirsh Singh	0
Lisa McCormick	2%	Dana Wefer	2%
Phil Murphy	23%
Titus Pierce	0
Jon Wisniewski	4%
Mark Zinna	0
Someone else	6%	Someone else	12%
DK (vol)	53%	DK (vol)_	54%
Refused (vol)	2%	Refused (vol)	2%

Question wording and order

US1 through US7 withheld

NJ1. And turning to New Jersey, do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is doing as governor?

[Randomize approve/disapprove]

1 Approve

2 Disapprove

3 Neither (vol)

8 DK (vol)

9 Refused (vol)

	1/10	3/3/10	3/30/10	5/10	8/10	10/10	11/10	1/11	2/11	4/11	5/11	9/11	10/11	1/12
Approve	48	52	43	44	47	51	49	53	51	51	44	54	51	53
Disapprove	31	21	32	42	36	37	39	36	39	41	44	36	36	37

	3/12	5/12	8/12	9/12	11/12*	11/12**	1/13	3/13	6/13	8/13	10/13	11/13	1/14	3/14
Approve	54	56	55	51	56	77	73	66	61	58	62	61	48	41
Disapprove	34	33	35	35	33	17	19	20	26	29	35	24	39	44

*Pre-election; **Post-election

	6/14	7/14	9/14	10/14	1/15	2/15	4/15	6/15	11/15	1/16	2/16	5/16	6/16	10/16	12/16
Approve	44	44	46	41	39	35	36	30	34	31	30	26	26	21	18
Disapprove	44	41	40	47	47	51	50	55	56	59	61	66	62	72	73

	1/17	3/17
Approve	18	20
Disapprove	78	72

NJ2 In your opinion, do you think things in New Jersey are moving in the right direction or are they on the wrong track? [Randomize right direction/wrong track]

1 Right direction

2 Wrong track

8 DK (vol)

9 Refused (vol)

	1/10	3/3/10	3/30/10	5/10	8/10	10/10	11/10	1/11	2/11	4/11	5/11	9/11	10/11	1/12
Right direction	27	32	33	35	42	44	40	44	44	44	36	45	46	44
Wrong track	55	49	55	55	48	48	51	48	47	57	55	47	43	47

	3/12	5/12	8/12	9/12	11/12*	11/12*	1/13	3/13	6/13	8/13	11/13	1/14	3/14
Right direction	51	50	49	52	58	69	61	57	57	49	56	51	41
Wrong track	39	41	40	34	30	19	26	26	28	34	28	39	45

*Pre-election; **Post-election

	6/14	7/14	9/14	10/14	1/15	2/15	4/15	6/15	11/15	1/16	2/16	5/16	6/16	10/16	12/16
Right direction	40	39	40	37	36	33	35	28	32	30	29	23	23	20	20
Wrong track	48	46	44	49	49	52	54	57	59	60	59	69	67	71	70

	1/17	3/17
Right direction	20	24
Wrong track	73	67

NJ3 Some people say they are basically content with the state government, others say they are frustrated, and others say they are angry. Which of these best describes how you feel?

1 Content

2 Frustrated

3 Angry

8 DK

9 Refused (vol)

NJ4 All in all, how good a job does the state government do in running its programs? An excellent job, a good job, only a fair job, or a poor job?

1 Excellent

2 Good

3 Fair

4 Poor

8 DK

9 Refused (vol)

NJ5 How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Trenton to do what is right? Just about always, most of the time, some of the time, or do you believe it can’t be trusted to do what’s right ever?

1 Always

2 Most of the time

3 Some of the time

4 Can’t be trusted

8 DK

9 Refused (vol)

NJ6 Some people think of the state government as a friend or protector. Others see it as bother, or even an enemy. On a scale of 1-10, where 1 means you think the state government is your enemy, and 10 means you think the state government is your friend, where on this scale would you place yourself?

Record score

98 DK (vol)

99 Refused (vol)

Sample characteristics (weighted)

Gender	Male	49%
	Female	51%
Age	18-34	27%
	35-59	40%
	60+	32%
	Refused	1%
Race	White	65%
	African American	14%
	Hispanic	13%
	Asian	4%
	Other/Refused	4%
Party (with leaners)	Dem	51%
	Ind/DK/Refused	20%
	Repub	29%

[1] Questions concerning state government were adaptations of those used by the Pew Research Center.